- Introduction
    - Two voices
        - 1. Do not fall behind.
        - 2. Do not risk what you cannot recover.
        - Events that make children hear the second voice too early are often a source of trauma.
- Ch 1 (unsorted)
    - Check out [[Finite and Infinite Games]] by [[James P. Carse]]
    - "Maximizing the expected returns of your choices is a good strategy only if the consequences of mistakes and misfortunes are reversible. Otherwise, it’s a stupid strategy."
    - "it is not the best ones who succeed. It is the best ones of those who survive."
        - In theory, performance determines success. In practice, performance is subordinate to survival.
    - Coin toss
        - Rules
            - Heads = +$1,000
            - Tails = -$950
        - On average, you win $25 per bet, so you should play. But if you have less than ${{[[calc]]: ((950 * 2))}}, then you can’t plan a second round if you lose the first.
    - Risk aversion makes sense in many non-ergodic systems
    - Ch 1.8
        - We instinctually know that survival matters, but envy can override this
            - Envy often doesn make sense because we’re ignoring the parts of the person’s life we don’t like or are ignoring the slim chances that they could get where they did
            - "Do not envy the survivors of ventures in which you didn’t participate."
            - "Whenever we desire an outcome because we see those that benefited from it, it is good practice asking yourself, **do you want the outcome, or do you want the opportunity to take the gamble that produced the outcome?** If you only want the former but not the latter, you might be unprepared for what’s to come."
    - Ch 1.9
        - Summary so far:
            - - [[irreversibility]] absorbs future gains.
            - - The [[population outcome]] is the outcome of many people performing an action once. The [[lifetime outcome]] is the outcome of one person performing an action many times.
            - - If the population and lifetime outcomes differ, the system that produces them is non-ergodic.
            - - You can only rely on expected outcomes if you are guaranteed a large number of repetitions. Otherwise, they are misleading ([[the law of large numbers]] requires a large number of repetitions).
            - - Risk aversion is rational in the presence of non-ergodicity.
- Ch 2
    - 2.1
        - Italian healthcare system worked on average, but failed locally in regions that were hardest hit
        - Average hides what happens locally. Inidviduals only care what happens locally. 
        - Most arguments between two good-faith people stem from two things
            - 1. Optimizing for different metrics
            - 2. Considering marginal utility of a resource with nonlinear utility (e.g. $100 has higher utility to someone below the poverty line than to a millionaire)
        -